The number of foreclosure defaults for Ventura County jumped from about 500 to 600 for the month of August while the Trustee Sales (auction date) remains about the same as July. The Trustee Deeds (gone to auction) remains steady. See the chart for the last 12 months. You can also see the chart for quarterly trends since June 2005. Data is from Foreclosure List Service.

Summer time! In our July – August newsletter, read all about the 4th of July at the Hollywood Bowl, record breaking interest rates, and charts to quickly see at a glance the housing market trends and foreclosure stats . On the 2nd page see pics of Don showing a bunch of kids on a field trip at the Camarillo airport how a plane is built. They loved sqeezing the numerous clamps and were surprised at how light the aileron is!

The number of homes in Default (the first stage of foreclosure) has been on the decline since previous highs with a few exceptions, while the number of  Notice of Trustee Sales and Trustee Deeds have been on the rise. This is partly due to banks unloading their shadow properties.  See for yourself this trend on the Quarterly chart of Ventura County Foreclosure Statistics since 2005.

There are several factors in play – there are more fixed rate loans than the subprime loans of yesteryear; home prices have stabilized and are on the rise in Ventura, Oxnard and Camarillo; and the HAFA program is available with a $3,000 relocation incentive for the home owner to do a preapproved, streamlined short sale.

If you’re interested in the HAFA program (Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternative) – give us a call or comment on this site!

Interest rates are at an all time low of 4.57% for a 30 year, fixed rate loan according to a recent survey by Freddie Mac.

But now there is much speculation if this fabulous interest rate will keep the housing market at the fever pitch it was prior to the April 30th deadline for first time homebuyers to enter into escrow to receive the $8,000 federal tax credit.

Check out for yourself the chart that Don Nelson Team compiled for the  number of homes sold in the past 12 months for Ventura, Oxnard and Camarillo. Which city do you think hiccuped but has now rebounded to fever pitch?

Our monthly and quarterly charts of single family homes and condos that have sold for Ventura, Oxnard and Camarillo are just a click away! This month, we’ve enhanced a feature showing the number of single family homes sold per quarter. For those of you who must have the raw stats, follow below… The graphs are in Adobe pdf format.

Here are the links for the charts of  sold prices for  single family homes and condos:

• Quarterly graph – single family homes sold prices in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo.
• 12 month graph – single family homes sold prices in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo.
• Quarterly graph – condos sold prices in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo.
• 12 month graph – condos sold prices in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo.

Here is the chart for the numbers sold per quarter for single family homes:

Quarterly graph – single family homes, numbers sold in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo.

Detailed statistics for single family homes in:

• Ventura
• Oxnard
• Camarillo

Detailed statistics for condos in:

• Ventura
• Oxnard
• Camarillo

Detailed statistics for pendings (single family homes and condos in escrow):

• Ventura
• Oxnard
• Camarillo

In our June newsletter we talk about the U.S. Treasury’s new HAFA program designed to streamline short sales for sellers and the incentives for the sellers. On our website you can listen to two short videos we’ve put together – one is a brief intro to the HAFA program and the second is more nuts and bolts.

Do you know anyone who could benefit from this new program?

Who reads and tracks our blog? The Ventura County Star! The statistics and other info we publish is one source they use in tracking our local real estate market.  Read the article in todays paper about “flippers” – investors who buy houses, fix them up and sell them for a profit.  A reporter from the Ventura County Star, Stephanie Hoops, wanted to know what’s happening in our local market and interviewed Don Nelson.

Morgan Stanley made a business decision to walk away from  5 office buildings in San Francisco they bought at the height of the market in 2007. It’s estimated their value dropped by almost 50%. They were not in foreclosure and were making the payments. It’s called a ‘strategic default‘ – a purely business decision. If Morgan Stanley can walk away, why not you?

Read the rest of this article »

I’ve recently had two excellent escrows bomb because the appraisals came in lower than the offered price – and for two different reasons. A lower appraisal means that if the buyer can’t come up with the difference in cash between the appraised value and the offered value, the deal bombs, much to the dismay and discouragement of all parties.

A common factor for the entry level market is many of the homes being bought and sold have been distressed foreclosure homes that investors have bought for cash, fixed up and “flipped” for $100,000 more several months later. These flipped properties skew the sold comparables for appraisers. In looking for sold comps within the last 4 – 6 months, the appraiser will often see that the home has sold twice – once at the foreclosure auction for cash, and later fixed up and sold for $100k more. Consequently, the higher priced,  flipped homes don’t appraise for the neighborhood of dated, original homes with the much lower price point.

So one of my deals bombed because the property was a “flip”. The investor paid $242k for the REO (bank owned), put about $50k in renovations, then marketed the property at $379k. The appraisal came in at $320k. This is very common in today’s market for entry level homes. There are, in many ways, two market levels today – one level is the price investors pay (all cash!) for their acquisitions and the second level is the price home owners pay. It makes it tough for appraisers to figure out what a property is “worth”.

My second deal bombed because the appraiser was from out of the area, used comparable sales from the investor acquisition side (not the home buyer side) and one comp was used from another condo complex that has a failing HOA and was an inappropriate comp for this deal.

It used to be, if you had a “breath on a mirror” – you could get a loan. Consequently, we’ve gotten ourselves into the mess we’re in, but now the pendulum has swung the other way. As a result of new regulations in the industry, lenders are “skittish”, appraisals are tough, and a deal can bomb at the eleventh hour from the smallest hiccup!