Realtors for Ventura | Oxnard | Camarillo

Bank of America this afternoon announced their new enhanced short sale relocation assistance program. They said “for a limited time, we are offering enhanced relocation assistance payments in which qualified homeowners who initiate a short sale without an offer could be eligible to receive $2,500 – $30,000* in relocation assistance and owe no more on their mortgage with the sale of their property”.

This also applies to Countrywide borrowers.

The homeowner must participate in one of the pre-approved price short sale programs, such as HAFA (Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives) or Bank of America’s proprietary program.

Call me now and let me explain how their program works and let’s see if this increased assistance program makes sense for you.

Grab a pencil and let’s see where the housing cost numbers are today as you consider whether to continue to rent – or make the leap into home ownership.

Understand this is only number crunching and doesn’t consider other crucial decisions – like, are you willing to commit to one home for a period of time? Renters can give 30 days notice and move on.

So I’ve arbitrarily picked out 2 scenarios – 1) buying a $200,000 condominium in the very popular Todd Ranch condos complex in Ventura and 2) buying a “typical” $400,000 single family house.

Both examples use FHA financing with a 3 1/2 % down payment, 3.75% at today’s interest rate (good credit, etc), and a 30 years fixed rate.

Here’s how the numbers play out:

A Todd Ranch condo:

Mortgage payment – $894
Mortgage insurance – $201
Taxes – $190
HOA – $325
Total = $1,620 per month

Rents in Todd Ranch? About $1,650 – $1,750 depending on size and loacation.

Note this analysis doesn’t take into account tax benefits. You’ll deduct the property taxes and interest on your tax returns for an extra “pop” to your income. But don’t buy a home just because you get some tax benefits – that’s merely icing on the cake.

Buying a $400,000 single family house:

Mortgage payment – $1,788
Mortgage insurance – $402
Taxes – $380
Insurance – $63 (homeowners insurance premiums can vary depending on several factors)
Total = $2,633

Rents for a single family home vary substantially, but will probably be in the low $2,000 range to mid $2,000+ range.

The key takeaway here – for investors, it used to be a rule of thumb you needed a 50% down payment to break even on cash flow. Today, a minimal down payment of 3 1/2% about breaks even.  Now you know why investors are snapping up real estate! Just food for thought…

Skimming the office copy of the Wall Street Journal yesterday, I was surprised to see on Page 1 an article titled “Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars are Back”.

The article said that many buyers are now competing for the same house – but unlike the “go-go years…today’s bidding wars are a result of supply shortages”.

In closing two escrows this month representing buyers of homes in the entry level price point range for single family homes, both parties had to fight to get their home – in both cases offering more than the listed price. Read the rest of this article »

 In our April, 2012 newsletter, Don writes about two articles from April’s Wired magazine that really intrigued him – and it wasn’t about the new super secret NSA building in the Utah desert!

The first was about the Stanford professor who put his graduate AI course online – and got 160,000 students from around the world taking his class!

The second was how the internet, and more specifically reddit.com, changed a man from his “day job” into a Hollywood screenwriter.

Home sales spiked up for Ventura, Oxnard and Camarillo in March as we start into the spring buying season. Fueled by historically low interest rates, we’re seeing spirited competition at the entry point range for single family homes.

We’re also seeing that the high number of distressed properties are influencing the price points of those homes, forcing traditional sellers to meet those price points or face having their home sit on the market.

The demand locally for available homes is creating a fierce battle between buyers looking for a “good deal” and banks trying to move product quickly. Home prices in Ventura and Oxnard have been steady this first quarter and Camarillo saw in jump in March.

Pending home sales are a leading indicator of current market activity. What is remarkable is the spike in Ventura for homes that are  in escrow for Q1 of this year (263) as compared to Q1 of ’11 (197). See the detailed numbers below.

The percentage of single family homes that were distressed sales in the month of  March are:

Ventura – 47%      Oxnard – 69%      Camarillo – 41%

Sold prices – Single family homes in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo:

• 12 month graph
• Quarterly graph ending Q1

Sold prices – Condos in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo:

• 12 month graph
• Quarterly graph ending Q1

Numbers sold – Single family homes in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo:

• 12 month graph
• Quarterly graph ending Q1

Detailed data for single family homes sold in:

• Ventura
• Oxnard
• Camarillo

Detailed data for condos sold in:

• Ventura
• Oxnard
• Camarillo

Detailed monthly data for pendings (in escrow) – single family homes and condos:

• Ventura
• Oxnard
• Camarillo

All data is taken from the Ventura, Oxnard and Camarillo MLS.

March saw a substantial spike in the filings of new foreclosures.  Data from Foreclosure List Service saw that January and February had been around 400 new filings per month or less, but March jumped into the low 500s.

One reason we believe we’re seeing this increase is because now that the major banks have settled their claims with the Federal government and the states, they will move to deal with the “shadow inventory” of non-performing loans. We are seeing individual filings with $50,000 to $100,000 (or more) amounts in default – meaning payments haven’t been made for 2 – 3 years.

Here is the monthly chart.

Here is the quarterly chart.

Here is the link for Foreclosure List Service.

February home sales numbers dropped for Camarillo and Oxnard but spiked up for Ventura. It’s not unusual to see numbers fall off in January and February because not as many buyers are house looking over the Christmas holidays. When the March numbers come out next month, I anticipate seeing the home sales numbers increase.

I continue to be amazed at the steady price point average for Oxnard over the past 12 months. While Ventura has seen more monthly variation, its trend line continues to be steady whereas Camarillo continues its downward trend. For condo price points Camarillo and Oxnard are steady but Ventura shows softening.

The percentage of single family homes that were distressed sales in the month of  February are:

Ventura – 60%      Oxnard – 69%      Camarillo – 55%

Sold prices – Single family homes in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo:

• 12 month graph
• Quarterly graph ending Q4

Sold prices – Condos in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo:

• 12 month graph
• Quarterly graph ending Q4
  

Numbers sold – Single family homes in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo:

• 12 month graph
• Quarterly graph ending Q4

Detailed data for single family homes sold in:

• Ventura
• Oxnard
• Camarillo

Detailed data for condos sold in:

• Ventura
• Oxnard
• Camarillo

Detailed monthly data for pendings (in escrow) – single family homes and condos:

• Ventura
• Oxnard
• Camarillo

All data is taken from the Ventura, Oxnard and Camarillo MLS.

Ultimately – it’s all for political show and virtually worthless. When the President announced the settlement, and I saw arrayed behind him a flank of bureaucrats and politicians, that’s what I thought – lots of thunder and fire, but ultimately not a lot of bang.

The politicians had to “do something” about the housing crisis and after over a year of negotiating, this is what we got:

People who lost their homes will get a check for maybe $1,500 – 2,000, but only if it was through one of the 5 banks. Underwater homeowners maybe can get $15,000 knocked off their loan balance through a loan mod, but again, only if their loan is with one of those 5 banks. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans don’t qualify.

In reality, for troubled homeowners in Ventura County who were maybe looking to somehow save their homes through this “breakthrough settlement”, it doesn’t do much. Reducing a loan balance by $15k means a payment reduction of about $80 a month ($20k at 5% over 30 years = $80.52). Reducing it by $20k saves a little over $100 a month. Not to minimize those savings, but when a homeowner has payments of $2,500 to $3,000 a month (mortgage, taxes and insurance) on a home that’s $150,000 underwater or more, $100 a month isn’t going to save that home.

But all the politicians from the states involved (Kamala Harris of CA) and the federal government can add this settlement to their political resume. Ultimately, the banks escaped serious damage. This settlement is going to be slowly played out as the economy continues to improve, allowing the 5 banks to absorb these costs gradually over time.

Should “something” have been done with banks? Absolutely. Will this help the housing crisis in Ventura County? I don’t think so. I believe what ultimately will heal this mess is job creation and the continued building of consumer confidence. It will be “we the people” who will solve this and solve it we will.

Most people understand their home is their most important asset, emotionally and financially. More young people in their 20s and 30s will come into the market as they seek to have their own nest. Growing families will need to move into larger homes. As incomes become stronger and wage earners feel more confident in their job security, they’ll want to move up. It’s just the way things are.

So I admit I’m a cynic going into this political cycle. I just hope the public is too.

January home sales numbers dropped for Ventura, Camarillo and Oxnard, but only because not as many buyers are in the market during the holiday season of November and December. These numbers will pick up as the first of the home buyers from January start closing escrow later this month and in March.

But single family home price points jumped in January for Ventura while Camarillo and Oxnard essentially remained steady.  Condo price points for the 3 cities are mixed.

The percentage of single family homes that were distressed sales in the month of  January are:

Ventura – 32%      Oxnard – 61%      Camarillo – 51%

Sold prices – Single family homes in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo:

• 12 month graph
• Quarterly graph ending Q4

Sold prices – Condos in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo:

• 12 month graph
• Quarterly graph ending Q4
  

Numbers sold – Single family homes in Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo:

• 12 month graph
• Quarterly graph ending Q4

Detailed data for single family homes sold in:

• Ventura
• Oxnard
• Camarillo

Detailed data for condos sold in:

• Ventura
• Oxnard
• Camarillo

Detailed monthly data for pendings (in escrow) – single family homes and condos:

• Ventura
• Oxnard
• Camarillo

All data is taken from the Ventura, Oxnard and Camarillo MLS.

January’s Notice of Default recordings showed an upward spike after a slide in recordings over the past several months.   See the monthly graph.  The number of actual foreclosures still hovers around 200 a month, but with the 3 month delay between the filing of the NOD and the filing of the Notice of Trustee Sale, we anticipate seeing a spike in the number of properties going to sale later this month.  This data is provided by Ventura County’s Foreclosure List Service.